Ag Market Commentary

Corn is trading 4 1/4 to 7 3/4 cents higher at midday. July futures are trading near $3.56/bu with no deliveries from weakness in cash. The national average cash corn price from cmdtyView is $3.29/bu, with ECB corn at a 20 1/4 cent premium to WCB prices. Weekly corn bookings were at the top end of estimates with 599,242 MT (23.6 mbu). New crop corn export sales were also on the high end of estimates with 409,345 MT (16.1 mbu). NMY commitments are at 169.4 mbu, which exceeds forward bookings from the same time last year by 33%. Argentina’s corn harvest was 81.7% complete through July 8. BAGE also reported yields are averaging 8.4 MT/HA (133.8 bpa) and maintains the 50 MMT production forecast. Brazil is reportedly 27% harvested for this year’s second crop. CONAB lowered their corn production forecast to 100.56 MMT, with a 0.7 MMT cut to second crop. Traders anticipate the July WASDE will also cut Brazil’s production, with an average estimate of 100.4 MMT down 0.6 from June. China’s sold 3.97 MMT of corn from state reserves. Domestic corn prices in the PRC have been elevated on tight supplies. The average selling price was 1,899 yuan/MT (~$6.75/bu).

Jul 20 Corn is at $3.56, up 7 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 Corn is at $3.53 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.60 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $3.70 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are up 7 1/4 to 8 cents per bushel in the front months. July soybeans are trading near $9.03 with no deliveries reported as of yet. The national average soybean cash price from cmdtyView is $8.56, but ECB beans are $8.59 compared to $8.19 in the WCB. Soymeal futures are $4.40 to $4.70/ton higher at midday. So far soy oil futures are 18 points lower in August and Sept, but up by 36 points in July. Old crop bean bookings from the week ending July 2 exceeded estimates as 34.99 mbu were sold. New crop sales were below expectations with just 14.04 mbu booked. Accumulated new crop bookings are at 49 mbu, which is 181% above new crop bookings from the same week last MY, and 81% of the total fwd sales coming into the 2019/20 MY. China booked 49% of the week’s sales, with 461k MT of old crop bookings and 192k MT of new crop purchases. Soymeal sales were 124,392 MT on the week ending July 2. Meal sales were primarily to Mexico and Colombia. Bean oil bookings on the week were just above pre-report estimates with 28,908 MT sold. A pre-report poll of analysts suggests traders expect a 0.7 MMT cut to 123.3 MMT for Brazil’s production. CONAB’s July estimate is 120.9 MMT.

Jul 20 Soybeans are at $9.02 3/4, up 8 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans are at $8.99 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans are at $8.98 3/4, up 8 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $9.05, up 7 3/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybean Meal is at $298.20, up $4.40

Aug 20 Soybean Oil is at $28.37, down $0.18

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Domestic wheat markets are trying for another double digit gaining day, with SRW leading the way. Chicago wheat futures are 8 1/2 to 13 1/2 cents higher so far. HRW wheat is up by 5 to 6 1/2 cents. MPLS wheat is trailing with gains of 3 to 4 cents. There were 26 more deliveries against HRW futures, month to date deliveries are at 238 contracts. SRW futures had 84 deliveries yesterday, for an accumulated total of 675 against July. Black Sea wheat futures traded the highest price since June 4 on concerns about poor yields in early harvested Russian fields. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 326,140 MT of wheat sales, that is down 22% wk/wk but 15% above the same week last year. SRW wheat was the top seller with 46% of the total. Accumulated SRW commitments are 29% behind last year’s pace through the first 5 weeks of the MY. The weekly update also showed the 75,000 MT of 2021/22 SRW bookings were canceled. Traders estimate USDA will increase 19/20 world ending stocks 1.5 MMT to 297.3 MMT on Friday.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat is at $5.28 1/2, up 12 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat is at $4.63 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.27 1/4, up 4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month fats are $0.95 to $1.40 higher so far. Gains in Dec contracts are the strongest, trading near $108.07. Feeder cattle futures are also triple digits higher at midday with gains of as much as $1.32. The July 6 Feeder Cattle index was $130.13. Cash cattle sales on Wednesday were mostly at $95, with limited IA and CO activity @ $99-$100. USDA confirmed cash sales this week are mostly $95 so far, with the full range $90-$101.50. From USDA’s weekly Export Sales report, 9,486 MT of beef was sold on the week ending July 2. That was an 8-week low and 56% below the same week last year. Of the week’s sales, 10.5% were to China, but Japan and South Korea were the top purchasers on the week. The week’s 15k MT shipped brought 2020 shipments to 396,923 MT. That is 0.33% above 2019’s total through July 4. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again on Thursday morning, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $8.72. Choice boxes were down 45 cents, and Select boxes dropped 86 cents. The week’s cattle slaughter is 354,000 head through Wednesday. That trails last week by 9,000 head and is 3k head below the same week last year.

Aug 20 Cattle are at $100.325, up $1.175,

Oct 20 Cattle are at $104.650, up $1.150,

Dec 20 Cattle are at $108.075, up $1.400,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle are at $135.300, up $1.250

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle are at $136.775, up $1.100

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $137.900, up $1.125

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Triple digit gains in the front month lean hog futures had August at a $3.50+ gain earlier in the session. The front month futures have started coming back down but are still $1.30 to $2.95 higher. The CME Lean Hog index for July 7 was 55 cents lower to $45.35. The National Average Base Hog price for Thursday morning was back up by 30 cents to $29.23. USDA reported 31,474 MT of pork was sold on the week ending July 2. That was down 20% wk/wk but 180% above the same week last year. The weekly report also mentioned 33,532 MT of pork was shipped on the same week, which pushed accumulated shipments to over 1 MMT. The 2019 record export year took until October 10th to breach the 1 MMT threshold. Through July 2, China accounts for 41% of all pork shipped. Last year, the nation was the destination for 23% of pork shipments. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was up another $4.45 to $71.61. Ham primals jumped another $16.87 cwt. to $71.09. FI hog slaughter for the week through Wednesday is 1.388m head. That compares to 1.406m head last week and 1.442 million from the same week a year ago.

Aug 20 Hogs are at $50.900, up $2.950,

Oct 20 Hogs are at $51.150, up $2.350

Dec 20 Hogs are at $52.850, up $1.550

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are firm to lower at midday. Dec through May futures are within 5 points of UNCH, while Oct and near expiration July are deeper in the red with 17 and 242 point losses respectively. Old crop cotton bookings from the Export Sales report were 43,772 RBs on the week ending July 2. That was down 35% wk/wk and 18% below the same week last year. Total commitments through July 2 (17.03m RBs) are still 11% above last year and the highest since the 2005/06 MY. Old crop sales to China accounted for 50.2% of the total. Tuesday sales on the Seam added 1,744 bales to the week’s total. The average gross price was 60.61 cents/lb. CONAB reported Brazilian cotton harvest at 9% complete. The June WASDE forecast for Brazilian cotton production is 13.2m bales. The July 7 Cotlook A index was down 25 points lower to 69.45 c/lb. The AWP for cotton is 50.13 cents/lb, and the LDP is 1.87 cents, both will be updated after the close.

Oct 20 Cotton is at 64.4, down 17 points,

Dec 20 Cotton is at 64.13, down 3 points,

Mar 21 Cotton is at 64.68, down 1 point,

May 21 Cotton is at 65.26, down 5 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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