Ag Market Commentary

After trading with 5 to 7 cent gains at midday, corn backed down and finished the day just 1 1/4 to 3 cents higher. Preliminary OI in July was down to just 1,285 contracts as of Wednesday. There have been no deliveries against July futures reported yet. The national average cash corn price from cmdtyView is $3.29/bu, with ECB corn at a 20 1/4 cent premium to WCB prices. Weekly corn export bookings were at the top end of estimates with 599,242 MT (23.6 mbu). New crop corn export sales were also on the high end of estimates with 409,345 MT (16.1 mbu). NMY commitments are at 169.4 mbu, which exceeds forward bookings from the same time last year by 33%. China’s sold 3.97 MMT of corn from state reserves, which is routine this time of year. Domestic corn prices in the PRC have been elevated on tight supplies. The average selling price was 1,899 yuan/MT (~$6.75/bu).

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.51 1/4, up 3 cents,

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.48 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.57, up 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.66 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures ceded 3 to 5 cents in the afternoon session, but still closed 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 cents higher in the front months. July soybeans were trading on just 142 contracts (as of Wed) with no deliveries reported yet. The national average soybean cash price from cmdtyView is $8.56, but ECB beans are $8.59 compared to $8.19 in the WCB. Soymeal futures closed with gains of $3.50 to $3.60/ton. Soy oil futures ended the day down by 26 points. Old crop export sales from the week ending July 2 exceeded estimates as 34.99 mbu were booked. New crop sales were below expectations @ just 14.04 mbu. Accumulated new crop bookings are at 49 mbu, which is 181% above new crop bookings from the same week last MY, and 81% of the total fwd sales coming into the 2019/20 MY. China booked 49% of the week’s sales, with 461k MT of old crop bookings and 192k MT of new crop purchases. Chinese new crop commitments are at a multi-year high for this date. Soymeal sales were 124,392 MT on the week ending July 2. Meal sales were primarily to Mexico and Colombia. Bean oil bookings on the week were just above pre-report estimates with 28,908 MT sold.

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.98 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.96 1/2, up 4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.95 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $9.01 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybean Meal closed at $297.30, up $3.50

Aug 20 Soybean Oil closed at $28.29, down $0.26

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

The U.S. wheat markets were mostly higher on Thursday. SRW wheat was up the most with gains of 7 1/4 to 8 3/4 cents in the front months. HRW wheat was UNCH in July and Sept, but the deferred contracts were fractionally higher. HRS wheat futures closed the day with 1 1/2 to 2 3/4 cent gains. There were 26 more deliveries against HRW futures, month to date deliveries are at 238 contracts. SRW futures had 84 deliveries yesterday, for an accumulated total of 675 against July. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 326,140 MT of wheat sales, that is down 22% wk/wk but 15% above the same week last year. SRW wheat was the top seller with 46% of the total. Accumulated SRW commitments are 29% behind last year’s pace through the first 5 weeks of the MY. The weekly update also showed the 75,000 MT of 2021/22 SRW bookings were canceled. Traders estimate USDA will increase 19/20 world ending stocks 1.5 MMT to 297.3 MMT on Friday.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.25, up 8 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.56 3/4, unch,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.26, up 2 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

After triple digit gains at midday, front month cattle futures fell back to gains of $0.10 to $0.77 by the close. Feeder cattle futures also ceded some midday gains, but still closed 35 to 50 cents higher on the day. The CME Feeder Cattle index for July 8 was $133.69, up by $3.54. USDA reported some limited Thursday cash sales. Trades went $96 to $97 for live basis and $155 to $157 for dressed. The bulk of the sales reported by USDA is mostly near $95 so far. From USDA’s weekly Export Sales report, 9,486 MT of beef was sold on the week ending July 2. That was an 8-week low and 56% below the same week last year. Of the week’s sales, 10.5% were to China, but Japan and South Korea were the top purchasers. The week’s 15k MT shipped brought 2020 shipments to 396,923 MT. That is 0.33% above 2019’s total through July 4. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again on Thursday, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $8.76. Choice boxes were down 24 cents, and Select boxes dropped 69 cents. The week’s cattle slaughter is 474,000 head through Thursday. That trails last week by 10,000 head and is 2k head below the same week last year.

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $99.250, up $0.100,

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $103.925, up $0.425,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $107.450, up $0.775,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $134.525, up $0.475

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $136.175, up $0.500

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.125, up $0.350

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs were up by as much as $2.27 at the closing bell on Thursday. August was up the most on the day but closed 90 cents off the high. April ’21 hogs closed 7 cents in the red. The CME Lean Hog index for July 7 was 55 cents lower to $45.35. The National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was back above $30 after a $1.09 increase, at $30.02. The WCB wtd average price was $30.44 this afternoon. USDA reported 31,474 MT of export pork was sold on the week ending July 2. That was down 20% wk/wk but 180% above the same week last year. The weekly report also mentioned 33,532 MT of pork was shipped on the same week, which pushed accumulated shipments to over 1 MMT. The 2019 record export year took until October 10th to breach the 1 MMT threshold. Through July 2, China accounts for 41% of all pork shipped. Last year, the nation was the destination for 23% of pork shipments. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value fell by 4 cents to $67.12. The afternoon primals were mixed. USDA’s estimate for WTD FI hog slaughter through Thursday is 1.857 head. That compares to 1.867m head last week and 1.902 million from the same week a year ago.

Aug 20 Hogs closed at $50.225, up $2.275,

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $50.550, up $1.750

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $52.600, up $1.300

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton prices were down by 20 to 23 points on Thursday, save for in delivery July which dropped 132 points. Old crop cotton bookings from the Export Sales report were 43,772 RBs on the week ending July 2. That was down 35% wk/wk and 18% below the same week last year. Total commitments through July 2 (17.03m RBs) are still 11% above last year and the highest since the 2005/06 MY. Old crop sales to China accounted for 50.2% of the total. The Seam reported 4,054 bales sold at an average gross price of 59.26 cents/lb. WTD sales on The Seam were 7,767 bales at a wtd av price of 60.07 c/lb. The July 7 Cotlook A index was down 25 points lower to 69.45 c/lb. The AWP for cotton for this week is up 135 points to 51.48 cents/lb. The week’s LDP is now 52 points.

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 64.34, down 23 points,

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 63.89, down 27 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 64.49, down 20 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 65.01, down 20 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.