Soybean Market 5 to 8 Cents Lower

Following the weekend break, soybean futures are another 5 to 8 cents lower. The soy complex closed in the red on Friday, with beans down 6 3/4 to 10 3/4 cents, meal down by as much as $5/ton, and soy oil futures 7 to 8 points per lb lower. The 2019/20 USDA carryout estimate rose to 620 mbu. Despite the larger ending stocks, USDA raised the cash average price a nickel to $8.55. The cash average price for the products also increased, $5 for meal to $300/ton, and 25 points for oil to 28.75 cents/lb. Expected cash average prices for next year were $8.50 for beans (+ $0.30), $300/ton for meal (+ $10), and 29 c/lb for oil (unch). New crop ending stocks were also up by more than expected, with a 30 mbu bump to 425. USDA increased soybean oil exports in the supply and demand forecasts. Up 150 million lbs to 2.85 billion for 2019/20, and up 200m lbs to 2.4 billion for 2020/21. 2019/20 soymeal production was increased to 50.623m tons, the additional meal went to domestic use. For 2020/21, USDA sees 50.975m tons of meal produced on 2.16 bbu of beans. In a bearish surprise, Brazilian old crop bean production was hiked to 126 MMT. World bean carryout was increased 480k MT to 99.7 MMT for old crop, but new crop was 1.26 MMT lower at 95.08. In the weekly CFTC report, soybean spec traders were 99,243 contracts net long on July 7. That was their largest net long since May 29 of 2018.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

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